Bill, how bad do you think it will get? (Swine Flu)

[Bill Glasheen]

Hey, Fred!

I'm on the mailing list of the Virginia Commissioner of Health, who sends me emergency notes whenever they get new information. So far, that communication link has been quiet.

This is what I know to date.

• H1N1 has been working its way around both in wintertime south of the equator, and even in the "off flu season" north of the equator. Mostly though its been making its way around in the south.
• The virus managed to make its way into a flock of turkeys in a South American country. That isn't good. Whenever a bug like this can readily jump species, it can pick up genetic material from unusual sources. So the myriad possibilities have just expanded quite a bit.
• The mortality rate by age group for seasonal flu is typically a U-shaped curve, with babies and the elderly most likely to die. The scary 1918 H1N1 was a W-shaped curve, with the healthiest having their immune systems attack the lungs. (Not good...) This H1N1 - for now - is a bit unique. It's partway in-between a U-shaped and an L-shaped curve. It seems that the elderly have some residual immunity to this due to their exposure to the 1918 H1N1, and its myriad echo waves through subsequent decades. So THIS is why the press has been making a big deal about young people being at risk. It's less about the morbidity of this H1N1, and more about the folks in the population likely to catch it.
• School is starting, and yet we're months away from the first H1N1 vaccinations becoming available. Fasten your seatbelts!

- Bill

[f.Channell]

It seems there is some differing warnings coming from WHO, World Health organization and CDC.
I don't think there's much immunity from 1918 Bill. That was 90 years ago.
It also continued for several years after, I bet the numbers are a lot higher than historically recorded.

My company is waiting 4-8 weeks for Purell shipments right now. It's already causing fear for the schools and others. It would normally take 3-5 days for a shipment.

F.

[Van Canna]

Trick is to remember to clean your hands with purell almost constantly.

It is unreal what I witness in public rest rooms....9o% of the men do not wash their hands and 90% of the ones that do grab the door handle on the way out unprotected.

How many of those people on daily basis will pass stuff from their hands to yours?

[Bill Glasheen]

Guys are the worst, Van.

You can tell if you have a good (smart) group of people. If the trash can is far away from the door, there's a pile of paper towels on the floor near the door. Smart restroom attendants learn to put a trash can right by the door for this very reason.

- Bill

[Bill Glasheen]

It seems there is some differing warnings coming from WHO, World Health organization and CDC.
I don't think there's much immunity from 1918 Bill. That was 90 years ago.
It also continued for several years after, I bet the numbers are a lot higher than historically recorded.

Read what I wrote very carefully.

It's the same H1N1, Fred. It did most of its damage in a 2 year period from 1917 through 1919. Then there were variants of it that came and went for decades, although these variants were nowhere near as nasty.

Flu viruses change their genetic material on a regular basis. They all exchange genetic material with other influenza viruses when infecting the same cells. They jump species back and forth through the years. H1N1 can infect both swine and poultry. This is why we see the same viruses coming back.

Older people have been exposed to myriad variants of H1N1. Younger people have never seen it.

- Bill