Good 'ol statistics. . . & some interesting speculation

Post by **gmattson** » Fri Jan 30, 2004 10:50 pm

Sent to me by Bill Bauknecht

SUBJECT: HISTORY

At about the time our original 13 states adopted their new constitution, in the year 1787, Alexander Tyler (a Scottish history professor at The University of Edinborough) had this to say about "The Fall of The Athenian Republic" some 2,000 years prior.

"A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, (which is) always followed by a dictatorship."

"The average age of the worlds greatest civilizations from the beginning of history, has been about 200 years. During those 200 years, these nations always progressed through the following sequence:

From Bondage to spiritual faith;

From spiritual faith to great courage;

From courage to liberty;

From liberty to abundance;

From abundance to complacency;

From complacency to apathy;

From apathy to dependence;

From dependence back into bondage."

Professor Joseph Olson of Hamline University School of Law, St. Paul, Minnesota, points out some interesting facts concerning the most recent Presidential election:

Population of counties won by:

Gore=127 million

Bush=143 million

Square miles of land won by:

Gore=580,000

Bush=2,2427,000

States won by:

Gore=19

Bush=29

Murder rate per 100,000 residents in counties won by:

Gore=13.2

Bush=2.1

Professor Olson adds:

"In aggregate, the map of the territory Bush won was mostly the land owned by the tax-paying citizens of this great country. Gore's territory encompassed those citizens living in government-owned tenements and living off government welfare..."

Olson believes the U.S. is now somewhere between the "apathy" and "complacency" phase of Professor Tyler's definition of democracy; with some 40 percent of the nation's population already having reached the "governmental dependency" phase.

RACastanet · Post by **RACastanet** » Fri Jan 30, 2004 11:04 pm

Scary...

Rich

benzocaine · Post by **benzocaine** » Sat Jan 31, 2004 7:58 pm

In aggregate, the map of the territory Bush won was mostly the land owned by the tax-paying citizens of this great country. Gore's territory encompassed those citizens living in government-owned tenements and living off government welfare..."

I am sure there are other factors involved as well. We have the bible belt phenomina.. they are more likely to vote for a republican.

I don't beleive that the vast majority of people who voted for Gore (coincidentally was the majority of Americans) want to vote money back to themselves. I think that they saw in Gore things like..His wanting to keep social security funds in a "lock box" so they are not squandered away on other government programs, and His stance many social issues (civil rights, abortion, ect.)

A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury.

Seems like that is happening under the watch of G.W. You can call it a refund but it still came from the treasury. Look at the hole he's digging with medicare.

Maybee Alexander Tyler is right about the fall of a democracy, but to infer it is the democrats fault seems unfair to me.

some 40 percent of the nation's population already having reached the "governmental dependency" phase.

Scary yes. What can we as a society do to fix this problem? Welfare reform was a great idea maybee we can make it work.. but there is a huge sucking vortex caused by jobs going overseas, while simultaneously we have proposals to allow more immagrants to take the jobs that are left... scary.

Gene DeMambro · Post by **Gene DeMambro** » Sun Feb 01, 2004 8:06 am

"In aggregate, the map of the territory Bush won was mostly the land owned by the tax-paying citizens of this great country. Gore's territory encompassed those citizens living in government-owned tenements and living off government welfare..."

A classless piece of poverty-bating class warfare proaganda by Prof. Olson as I haven't seen in a long time.

Where can we read Prof. Olson's report in full? I'm sure he provides current US Census data to back up his (implied) claim that those folks who voted for Gore ( a majority of voters) live in tenements and are living off government welfare? He has other research, I assume, submitted to peer-reviewed unbiased researchers who have verified the validity and reliability of his findings? Prof. Olson can also compare the per capita tax asssessment in Gore states vs. Bush states to reach his conclusions? He has stratified the American voter into "land owner" vs. "tenement dweller living off of governemnt welfare" and compared how each group voted in 2000? Did he do this state by state, or in the aggregate?

What crime statistics did Prof. Olson use to support his murder rate arithmatic?

What statistics does Prof. Olson use to support his conclusion that 40% of America's population have reached the "governmental dependency" phase? Does he include, perhaps, life-long government employees who have earned their pensions? How 'bout retired service members in the same situation? How 'bout servicemembers disabled in war, receiving stipends? Does he include those "government dependants" in his data, or does he stratify those out? And how does he define "governmental dependancy" anyway?

Or perhaps Prof. Olson is an arch-conservative operative who equates all Democrats with ultra-lefties who wish to bankrupt the nation with their insistance on having people live off of the public dole. Of course, he ignores Republican patronage.....

Of course, there's no author of this piece, making further research difficult....

Gene

Deep Sea · Post by **Deep Sea** » Sun Feb 01, 2004 12:41 pm

Statistics, demographics; I love 'em. Absolutely!!! They are often misleading but when you combine different areas they began to make perfect sense, like celluloid Vann Diagram Overlays, and they then pose a somwhat accurate picture of what is and what is to come.

Ask for me to look for the references, and you fail. I read what I write about all the time, and there is little more than as passing interest on my part.

To add to the opening post, Last week, I read in the paper that 90% of the black voters supported the Demos, while the majority of Whites support Bush and the Republicans. I can understand that:

Democrats are for welfare, special interest groups, self-serving interests, and, oh yes, Ross Perot's infamous "Sucking Sound," NAFTA.

Republicans are for the working man and what keeps him working, and for a string national defense.

You may say but the D's do this and the R's do that arguing my previous two paragraphs, and that's good. BUT your arguments will be int the realm of exception -- in fringe territory -- rather than the rule.

Bush=2,2427,000

That looks like it could be a lot of territory, George, but I don't quite understand what that particular number means, especially the 4-digt segment. This is the one that lighted my burners this morning...

Bush states to reach his conclusions? He has stratified the American voter into "land owner" vs. "tenement dweller living off of governemnt welfare"

That kinda leaves out the person who is a tax-paying tenement dweller, the forgotten citizen.

support his conclusion that 40% of America's population have reached the "governmental dependency" phase?

I wonder what percentage of governmental dependencies are on welfare and what percentage are pensioners, etc.

Back to the top...

had this to say about "The Fall of The Athenian Republic" some 2,000 years prior.

I often think about the two new Jamestown settlements in the "New World? The first one failed because the [majority of the] inhabitants were lazy and lived off the others' and the local government. Ultimately the population perished. In the second try, each individual had to make his own keep, else was not allowed to remain. The second settlement flourished because of it and grew into the Jamestown of today.

"A democracy is always temporary in nature;

It is so true that every great nation [or great civilization, if you will], has its rise and fall. It is possible that we are on the descending slope of ours, and yet it is also possible that this could be a valley of the numerous peaks and valleys of our country. Who knows? I'll keep my personal opinions out of this one. Assuradely, if I look at the scale, to me it appears we are transgressing from dependency into bondage, or at least close to it.

Murder rate per 100,000 residents in counties won by:

I have no feel for the actual numbers, but if one can believe what he reads in the newspapers and on TV, crime sure seems to fall heavily in that direction.

What can we as a society do to fix this problem?

Not one sucking thing as a society. However as astute individuals casting our votes in an intelligent, unselfish manner make a difference, or at least slow down the demise.

Again on this sucking sound, Afore and before everyone thinks I'm a Bush fan, that breeze of personal support may come to a standstill. Again last week, I read in newsprint that Bush wants to export high teck jobs overseas and offshore, and that IBM will be laying of many American educated technical personell and replacing them with factoried in India and China. This number is somewhere in the tens of thousands.

First the textile industry went south, and now, what little remains of the computer industry is going to go East? Keep it up and there'll be nothing left at home for work. Only the rich and the poor. Hence there will then be a REAL need for homeland defense. Get ahold of your congressman and try to stop the migration of American jobs out of this country. The hell with global economy until we are all working and able to afford our families. Put some of your fuel under that one, benzo.

coincidentally was the majority of Americans

By a slim margin maybe, Benzo? I think what attracts those to that camp is because that camp is so much like like New England Weather -- If you don't like it than stick around a few minutes." In other words, they speak for the moment, saying one thing to one group and another thing to another group -- whatever fits. And the individual groups have no concept of each others'. Quite the superior strategy those guys have: Divide and Conquer. Nor do those groups care about anyone other than themselves. They just want to get on the bandwagon to satisfy their own personal needs, irrespectively. And resultingly collectively that particular camp gets their votes.

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poverty-bating class warfare proaganda

Oh it is definitely, Gene, propaganda
it's opening the eyes to what it's like in Uganda.

equates all Democrats with ultra-lefties who wish to bankrupt the nation

OOhhh...Why that IS food for thought, Gene. Why didn't I think of that.

Missouri? I prefer Utah for multiple reasons. Show me, sho me! Beause it's Utah or bust.

Do I care? Hell, no. Next time I vote I might just do it by a coin-toss because I've already reached the state of..., from MO to UT -- Apathy. Therefore, forthcoming predictions will be Apothetical [as opposed to hypothetical, which is not on the list].

benzocaine · Post by **benzocaine** » Sun Feb 01, 2004 4:06 pm

I read in newsprint that Bush wants to export high teck jobs overseas and offshore, and that IBM will be laying of many American educated technical personell and replacing them with factoried in India and China.

I had a problem with my HP pavilion computer about a month or so ago. When I called I was basically transfered to India. The persons accent was so thick I had to ask him to repeat things many times. I spent colse to an hour on the phone with him.. no results

He took my phone number and said he'd get back to me... never did. The next day I was transfered to the second teir or level.. wherre you speak to an American..ahhhh.. quality service. We fixed the problem in no time

Well, the point I am making is that we already are seeing many tech jobs going elsewhere. Call AT&T get India. Same with AOL. Funny how these companies names start with America huh?

Deep Sea · Post by **Deep Sea** » Sun Feb 01, 2004 7:03 pm

Well, the point I am making is that we already are seeing many tech jobs going elsewhere. Call AT&T get India. Same with AOL. Funny how these companies names start with America huh?

It's unfunny that they start with America and end up someplace else on the globe.

I've reconcilled credit card issues with heavily accented peoples in the Phiilipines, so I know where you are coming from. Maybe we should consider ourselves that they still speak English -- although they do not understand it [meaning inflections connote meanings].

Just grabbed this paragraph; find it in an American newspaper if you can...

Nortel Networks said in September 2003 it plans to invest $200 million in the next three years to strengthen its research and development capabilities in China.

Read the URL:
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business ... 45,00.html

Build your own newspaper My Way

Not scared of that gigantic sucking sound??? on this pulse

In Jan 2004 IBM said it plans to move up to 3,000 jobs from the United States to developing countries this year. [That was only the first part]

more ibm
and this

ADDED: Moments after I first published the above riposte, I did a google search on

"American Layoffs" 2004

and the following is one of the URLS that it produced. THIS is the article you should read if you are concerned about YOUR job.

http://www.enquirer.com/editions/2003/0 ... ain11.html

REPLACEMENTS translates to DISPLACEMENTS.

And more references:

http://209.157.64.200/focus/f-news/961784/posts

I normally don't do references....

Gene DeMambro · Post by **Gene DeMambro** » Tue Feb 03, 2004 2:08 pm

Sigh....

Another "Urban Legend" that made it through. When will we learn.

The piece posted at the top is mostly false, and what is correct bears a small role in the theme of the piece.

Check it out yourself....

http://www.snopes.com/politics/quotes/tyler.asp

Gene