Van Canna wrote:
Fact is lightning can strike out of nowhere anytime.
They say lightning never strikes twice in the same place.
True story... A professor of mine in the biomedical engineering graduate school had his house struck by lightning. So the insurance company paid to have the partially damaged home repaired. Two years later lightning struck the home again, and burned in to the ground.
He *could* have chosen to get a lightning rod (or a few) put on his roof. He didn't. Lightning happened. Again.
As a trained predictive modeler, a maxim in my world is that the best predictor of the future is the immediate past. So for instance if I'm going to predict someone's next-year medical costs, the model I build will *always* have last year's medical costs as one of the input variables. When I train the model on a million people, I can bet my left nut that the variable for last year's costs will account for the highest proportion of the future cost variance. Only when I build really complex models which rely on sophisticated condition classification systems which separate out acute from chronic conditions will I get something that's not "stupid-simple". For us normal people, stupid-simple is a good place to start.
I'll probably have a Henrico County cop flashing radar at me again in the next few years. Just sayin...
Same goes for other bad things happening in life. We're crazy to ignore the simple life lesson. How we act on it is what separates one person from the next. Ideally we have triple-redundant systems which prevent the scenario from occurring again. And if someone is bullying us, well... Fair is fair.
I still haven't figured out how to prevent running into deer in heat on I-64 in eastern KY. Totalled my van on that love-sick doe, standing right in the middle of the highway on a rainy night. I do however pay more attention to the "deer crossing" signs these days. Oh... and I gave a call to the KY highway department and asked them to put a few up around Ashland, KY. Everyone in that rural town (where I was stuck for 2 days) seemed to know that the local bambis wanted some buck.
Humina humina! The highway folks didn't. But they listened to my request, and obliged me.
- Bill
P.S. I started counting dead deer on the side of the highway on my Richmond to Louisville road trips. The average is about 5, and they're all dead. That's a lot of smashed cars!