the hot zone
Moderator: Available
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jorvik
the hot zone
I read this book some time back and it still gives me the creeps...it tells of "EBOLA" a really horrible disease and how it spread into various parts of Africa.....and America......consider this, if Osama and his gang of shiites want to destroy the western world, wouldn't this, or something similar be their weapon of choice?
the hot zone
This is, in fact, the plot of Tom Clancy's novel Executive Orders, wherein his protagonist Jack Ryan is newly and accidentally President Of The United States and biochemical warfare - Ebola - is unleashed on the U.S.
student
student
the hot zone
Not to be mean or anything, but Bin Laden is basically a cave dweller. Their methods: hijack airplanes with knives. Use rifles and grenades in raids. Pack cars full of explosives.
Ebola on the other hand crops up periodically in Africa but no one knows why. Despite their best efforts scientists have yet to even figure out where it comes from, and they've collected hundreds and hundreds of species looking for a carrier. The virus itself is highly contaigious meaning one would have to be pretty careful transporting and releasing it. Samples would have to come from a few secured labs.
Bin Laden doesn't have the smarts to acquire the stuff.
Smallpox on the other hand may have disappeared from a Russian lab, and with the meltdown in security over there (soldiers leaving a nuclear missile unguarded while foraging for potatoes) that could have fallen into psychopath hands. Luckily there's an effective vaccine and where we have stomped it out once, we can stomp it out again.
Ebola on the other hand crops up periodically in Africa but no one knows why. Despite their best efforts scientists have yet to even figure out where it comes from, and they've collected hundreds and hundreds of species looking for a carrier. The virus itself is highly contaigious meaning one would have to be pretty careful transporting and releasing it. Samples would have to come from a few secured labs.
Bin Laden doesn't have the smarts to acquire the stuff.
Smallpox on the other hand may have disappeared from a Russian lab, and with the meltdown in security over there (soldiers leaving a nuclear missile unguarded while foraging for potatoes) that could have fallen into psychopath hands. Luckily there's an effective vaccine and where we have stomped it out once, we can stomp it out again.
the hot zone
Hey Jorvik!
You sound worried and have good reason to be. You can be if you want, but there's nothing you can do except maybe keep a watchful eye out and pack a sidearm for when the sh!t hits the fan.
Since 9-11, it has become clearly obvious that Al-Qaeda cells are technologically advanced, often powered by high-level scientists and engineers. They have the knowledge and the abilities plus they are gathering the resources on a continued basis. It was recently reported that they have 5,000 operatives in the US, let in like the Ancient Trojans who wheeled the fateful infamous wooden horse to within their gates and saw their civilization crumble and streets run red with blood before the remaining Trojans awoke from their drunken stupor. Will we survive the next onslought or will we be slaughtered in multitudes? No one knows. Make peace with God and your soul and don’t worry.
However, if you are scouting for something else to be genuinely concerned about, read the following wire that came across my desk moments ago:
http://www.drudgereport.com/flash1.htm
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Allen Moulton from Uechi-ryu Etcetera
You sound worried and have good reason to be. You can be if you want, but there's nothing you can do except maybe keep a watchful eye out and pack a sidearm for when the sh!t hits the fan.
Since 9-11, it has become clearly obvious that Al-Qaeda cells are technologically advanced, often powered by high-level scientists and engineers. They have the knowledge and the abilities plus they are gathering the resources on a continued basis. It was recently reported that they have 5,000 operatives in the US, let in like the Ancient Trojans who wheeled the fateful infamous wooden horse to within their gates and saw their civilization crumble and streets run red with blood before the remaining Trojans awoke from their drunken stupor. Will we survive the next onslought or will we be slaughtered in multitudes? No one knows. Make peace with God and your soul and don’t worry.
However, if you are scouting for something else to be genuinely concerned about, read the following wire that came across my desk moments ago:
http://www.drudgereport.com/flash1.htm
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Allen Moulton from Uechi-ryu Etcetera
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jorvik
the hot zone
QUOTE
"Bin Laden doesn't have the smarts to acquire the stuff"
I agree that bin laden or any terrorist for that matter would be hard pressed to get ebola...but,if they wanted a weapon of mass destruction a biological weapon is far easier to acquire than a nuclear weapon..unlike a nuclear weapon it would be unclear who had sent it, there would be no big bang..so that you wouldn't even know it was there ..could even be going off at the same time in different places..how would it strike..in europe it would shoot through like a hot knife through butter...good railway system, heavily populated areas..close together...some parts of the U.S.A would be quite safe because of the demography.. whereas others would far no better than europe, scary stuff!!
"Bin Laden doesn't have the smarts to acquire the stuff"
I agree that bin laden or any terrorist for that matter would be hard pressed to get ebola...but,if they wanted a weapon of mass destruction a biological weapon is far easier to acquire than a nuclear weapon..unlike a nuclear weapon it would be unclear who had sent it, there would be no big bang..so that you wouldn't even know it was there ..could even be going off at the same time in different places..how would it strike..in europe it would shoot through like a hot knife through butter...good railway system, heavily populated areas..close together...some parts of the U.S.A would be quite safe because of the demography.. whereas others would far no better than europe, scary stuff!!
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jorvik
the hot zone
hey Allen.
just read your post.
that joke about "evian" being an anagram of "naive" doesn't sound that funny anymore...
just read your post.
that joke about "evian" being an anagram of "naive" doesn't sound that funny anymore...
the hot zone
Hello Jorvik,
"Evian" reads like the term that labels those nuts wearing rose-colored glasses who look into the mirror stupidly unable to see past the end of their own noses while incapable of reading the handwriting on the wall right behind them.
Subway system? Do you bring back memories of forgotten newspaper articles or what? Was it only a month or two back that the feds were discussing massive Sarin nerve-gas subway saturation?
Hey! On John Thurston's forum, I recently wrote that the missing ingredient for another major world war was large-scale world-wide unemployment. Lordy, lordy! The front page of this morning’s Sunday’s edition of the Boston Globe dissolved the missing ingredient with a direct relationship to the Great Depression, including three graphs to illustrate how that is. What next? Care to guess?
Ebola? Do you not think people like Sadamn's scientists and others in North Afria are not feverishly working 24 hours a day on developing their techniques? Easy to deliver. Why people sneak into this country in containers on cargo ships all the time.
Look, man, it's all there, and when someone gives the word, it’s all over, therefore I’ll deposit an additional thought before I leave for the day…. I remember a popular adolescent saying, something about passing up a bottle of wine, Porterhouse steak, and a good piece of ass. Looks like time is not on the side of passing up many more of those golden opportunities, so eat, drink, and be merry while still able.
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Allen Moulton from Uechi-ryu Etcetera
"Evian" reads like the term that labels those nuts wearing rose-colored glasses who look into the mirror stupidly unable to see past the end of their own noses while incapable of reading the handwriting on the wall right behind them.
Subway system? Do you bring back memories of forgotten newspaper articles or what? Was it only a month or two back that the feds were discussing massive Sarin nerve-gas subway saturation?
Hey! On John Thurston's forum, I recently wrote that the missing ingredient for another major world war was large-scale world-wide unemployment. Lordy, lordy! The front page of this morning’s Sunday’s edition of the Boston Globe dissolved the missing ingredient with a direct relationship to the Great Depression, including three graphs to illustrate how that is. What next? Care to guess?
Ebola? Do you not think people like Sadamn's scientists and others in North Afria are not feverishly working 24 hours a day on developing their techniques? Easy to deliver. Why people sneak into this country in containers on cargo ships all the time.
Look, man, it's all there, and when someone gives the word, it’s all over, therefore I’ll deposit an additional thought before I leave for the day…. I remember a popular adolescent saying, something about passing up a bottle of wine, Porterhouse steak, and a good piece of ass. Looks like time is not on the side of passing up many more of those golden opportunities, so eat, drink, and be merry while still able.
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Allen Moulton from Uechi-ryu Etcetera
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jorvik
the hot zone
quote
"I remember a popular adolescent saying, something about passing up a bottle of wine, Porterhouse steak, and a good piece of ass. Looks like time is not on the side of passing up many more of those golden opportunities, so eat, drink, and be merry while still able."
I was probably that adolescent...though thirty years back ( and I've never been popular)..but i whole heartedly follow the rest of your endorsment,....." two fat ladies in a jacuzi..a bottle of bubbly..a steak butty..and the world can go to hell..
"I remember a popular adolescent saying, something about passing up a bottle of wine, Porterhouse steak, and a good piece of ass. Looks like time is not on the side of passing up many more of those golden opportunities, so eat, drink, and be merry while still able."
I was probably that adolescent...though thirty years back ( and I've never been popular)..but i whole heartedly follow the rest of your endorsment,....." two fat ladies in a jacuzi..a bottle of bubbly..a steak butty..and the world can go to hell..
the hot zone
The US will always be subject to terrorism because we're not a police state and don't want to become one.
But why should we be concerned that Al-Qaeda or Saddam and their virology teams are going to be ahead of western world's leading virologists in finding a natural vector for Ebola--or what are their other options, waiting for an outbreak then sending teams into the "hot zone" wearing spacesuits to collect samples from hospitalized patients? How do we know that a biologic weapon is easier to acquire than a nuclear one? Why would Ebola in NYC be more mysterious or less traceable than a dirty bomb or a nuclear bomb? Why does the time delay from delivery to recognition mean a biologic is better than a nuclear weapon?
But why should we be concerned that Al-Qaeda or Saddam and their virology teams are going to be ahead of western world's leading virologists in finding a natural vector for Ebola--or what are their other options, waiting for an outbreak then sending teams into the "hot zone" wearing spacesuits to collect samples from hospitalized patients? How do we know that a biologic weapon is easier to acquire than a nuclear one? Why would Ebola in NYC be more mysterious or less traceable than a dirty bomb or a nuclear bomb? Why does the time delay from delivery to recognition mean a biologic is better than a nuclear weapon?
the hot zone
Hello,
Great book. Just one note: epidemiologically, hemorraghic fevers like ebola are really not a big worry. They burn through hosts too fast to spread very effectively; the incubation time is short, and the mortality rate is high. Yes, it could make a mess in the case of an outbreak, but it would be much more easily contained than, say, smallpox. As Ian mentioned, the vaccinia vaccine is very effective against smallpox, and the government just ordered a ton more of it, so no worries there.
-Mike
Great book. Just one note: epidemiologically, hemorraghic fevers like ebola are really not a big worry. They burn through hosts too fast to spread very effectively; the incubation time is short, and the mortality rate is high. Yes, it could make a mess in the case of an outbreak, but it would be much more easily contained than, say, smallpox. As Ian mentioned, the vaccinia vaccine is very effective against smallpox, and the government just ordered a ton more of it, so no worries there.
-Mike
the hot zone
Just thought you might find it interesting to know that since 9-11, most hospitals have developed a biological warefare emergency plan that includes training physicians in the identification and treatment of potential biological weapons.
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Bill Glasheen
- Posts: 17299
- Joined: Thu Mar 11, 1999 6:01 am
- Location: Richmond, VA --- Louisville, KY
the hot zone
The Hot Zone was a great book. I remember reading it about 5 years back. The one reason we know more about these thread viruses now is because the Kinshasa highway now cuts through the heart of Africa, and brings life deep in the jungle out to the rest of the civilized world.
I agree with M Keller that - today - e bola isn't a great biological weapon.
1) It isn't (yet) very well understood.
2) It is so virulent that it burns itself out too quickly.
3) It takes too much technology ($$) to manage.
4) It's liable to turn around and bite the hands that released it. What idiot would unleash a weapon that - in today's global transportation world - would work its way back to their home population and wipe them all out? We are better prepared to respond to new diseases than the rest of the world.
The one thing that is "interesting" though is that this virus - in it's many strains - has shown the potential to evolve into something that is very nasty. One day we may see an airborne thread virus that could wipe out large numbers of people pretty quickly. That wouldn't be a terrorist weapon, that would be a public health disaster and a human tragedy. And chances are about 99.9% that it would start in Africa.
I have a few other things that I think folks should consider along the lines of terrorism.
1) The problem with al quada is that they aren't operating under the radar screen any more. Terrorism is all about stealthily getting the greatest psychological effect from the smallest effort. Stealth is now gone, because they were a little TOO successful on September 11. We no longer need an excuse to walk into a country and kick bootie. I say BRING IT ON!!! We need another excuse to off a few more jerks in the world (This editorial opinion may or may not be shared by the support staff on this web page
).
2) I'm not looking for sophistication. As was mentioned above, the beauty (if you want to call it that) of 9/11 is in its simplicity. They used our technology against us, and did so with box cutters, for Christ's sake. After that, they delivered our own biological weapons to their targets via the friggin mail. If somebody wants to hurt you badly enough, they will find a way. The solution is to hit first. Make the world think you are just a little bit nuts when made upset. (Once again, editorial opinion.)
3) As far as technology goes, THIS is the thing that everyone has missed. In an article to be released in Science, a group of scientists constructed polio virus from scratch starting with a computer file that listed the genetic sequence. THIS IS BIG. It is as significant as the making of the first atomic reaction. There are so many things - both good and bad - that can come from this. If we can make life, and the life we make will become more complicated with time, then we can switch a few nucleic acids here and there and make life never "considered" in the natural world. The posibilities are infinite. In a generation or two, we will be capable of much.
4) Consider this. In 200 years, the Middle East as we know it today will no longer be. Folks will be riding camels, talking about "the good old days." The only reason many countries can and do make trouble today is because they are sitting on - and not creating - wealth. But it is a finite resource. I say burn all the Middle East oil we can - as fast as we can - and sit on our own. Troublemakers in the Middle East know that. They will make their move(s) in this generation, or watch themselves become increasingly irrelevant. (Once again, editorial opinion)
- Bill
I agree with M Keller that - today - e bola isn't a great biological weapon.
1) It isn't (yet) very well understood.
2) It is so virulent that it burns itself out too quickly.
3) It takes too much technology ($$) to manage.
4) It's liable to turn around and bite the hands that released it. What idiot would unleash a weapon that - in today's global transportation world - would work its way back to their home population and wipe them all out? We are better prepared to respond to new diseases than the rest of the world.
The one thing that is "interesting" though is that this virus - in it's many strains - has shown the potential to evolve into something that is very nasty. One day we may see an airborne thread virus that could wipe out large numbers of people pretty quickly. That wouldn't be a terrorist weapon, that would be a public health disaster and a human tragedy. And chances are about 99.9% that it would start in Africa.
I have a few other things that I think folks should consider along the lines of terrorism.
1) The problem with al quada is that they aren't operating under the radar screen any more. Terrorism is all about stealthily getting the greatest psychological effect from the smallest effort. Stealth is now gone, because they were a little TOO successful on September 11. We no longer need an excuse to walk into a country and kick bootie. I say BRING IT ON!!! We need another excuse to off a few more jerks in the world (This editorial opinion may or may not be shared by the support staff on this web page
).2) I'm not looking for sophistication. As was mentioned above, the beauty (if you want to call it that) of 9/11 is in its simplicity. They used our technology against us, and did so with box cutters, for Christ's sake. After that, they delivered our own biological weapons to their targets via the friggin mail. If somebody wants to hurt you badly enough, they will find a way. The solution is to hit first. Make the world think you are just a little bit nuts when made upset. (Once again, editorial opinion.)
3) As far as technology goes, THIS is the thing that everyone has missed. In an article to be released in Science, a group of scientists constructed polio virus from scratch starting with a computer file that listed the genetic sequence. THIS IS BIG. It is as significant as the making of the first atomic reaction. There are so many things - both good and bad - that can come from this. If we can make life, and the life we make will become more complicated with time, then we can switch a few nucleic acids here and there and make life never "considered" in the natural world. The posibilities are infinite. In a generation or two, we will be capable of much.
4) Consider this. In 200 years, the Middle East as we know it today will no longer be. Folks will be riding camels, talking about "the good old days." The only reason many countries can and do make trouble today is because they are sitting on - and not creating - wealth. But it is a finite resource. I say burn all the Middle East oil we can - as fast as we can - and sit on our own. Troublemakers in the Middle East know that. They will make their move(s) in this generation, or watch themselves become increasingly irrelevant. (Once again, editorial opinion)
- Bill
the hot zone
<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by M. Kelly:
Just thought you might find it interesting to know that since 9-11, most hospitals have developed a biological warefare emergency plan that includes training physicians in the identification and treatment of potential biological weapons. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
There were a few of these programs offered (not required or anything like that, not vigorously encouraged) at my hospital, and there were 5 or so people in attendance. Other places I've been I haven't seen much of anything. I think you'll see mostly MD's who freak out when their patients liquefy in front of them (Ebola) or get covered with a bazillion pox (smallpox obviously) or got from flu to overwhelming septic pneumonia in 6 seconds (anthrax, although if you don't see the postal cap by the bed or happen to notice the widended mediastinum on chest Xray you might just pass it off as another sickie in the ICU, since they aren't uncommon). I'm not terribly impressed with the systems in place but enough of the major journals have run stuff on bioterrorism recognition that enough doctors have learned the basics--but on their own.
Mike, you going to UVA?
Just thought you might find it interesting to know that since 9-11, most hospitals have developed a biological warefare emergency plan that includes training physicians in the identification and treatment of potential biological weapons. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
There were a few of these programs offered (not required or anything like that, not vigorously encouraged) at my hospital, and there were 5 or so people in attendance. Other places I've been I haven't seen much of anything. I think you'll see mostly MD's who freak out when their patients liquefy in front of them (Ebola) or get covered with a bazillion pox (smallpox obviously) or got from flu to overwhelming septic pneumonia in 6 seconds (anthrax, although if you don't see the postal cap by the bed or happen to notice the widended mediastinum on chest Xray you might just pass it off as another sickie in the ICU, since they aren't uncommon). I'm not terribly impressed with the systems in place but enough of the major journals have run stuff on bioterrorism recognition that enough doctors have learned the basics--but on their own.
Mike, you going to UVA?
the hot zone
At our hospital, there were about 500 in attendance at the first meeting and about 300 at the second and third lectures. I guess it is because we in NY.
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Michael Kelly, DO
www.dimmak.net
The Science Behind The Legend
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Michael Kelly, DO
www.dimmak.net
The Science Behind The Legend
the hot zone
Doesnt matter if it's nuclear, biological or chemical that'll clean house, Mike & Mike, FEMA is "engaged in a crash effort to prepare for multiple mass destruction attacks on U.S. cities" and getting ready for survivors. Whatever is in the air, they are preparing to construct refugee camps, or what they call "makeshift cities," to "...house hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of Americans."
In the 1950's it was uncomplicated. All you had to do was practice the drills when the frequent air-raid alarms would sound and build a fallout shelter -- or not.
The trades are going to be busy soon, and if nothing else it'll keep them off unemployment.
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Allen Moulton from Uechi-ryu Etcetera
In the 1950's it was uncomplicated. All you had to do was practice the drills when the frequent air-raid alarms would sound and build a fallout shelter -- or not.
The trades are going to be busy soon, and if nothing else it'll keep them off unemployment.
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Allen Moulton from Uechi-ryu Etcetera
