Can someone Help Me Out with the Numbers?

[Deep Sea]

I pulled the following quote from this URL

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/020416/105/1ejn3.html


and can't figure out how to correlate "40-60%" with the words "significant minority." I realize it's only 5 am and the first coffee hasn't made it here yet, but... Looks to me like the word "minority" is the errant one. Can anyone help with the numbers?

<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><HR>Not everybody who files for divorce is absolutely bound and determined. A surprisingly high proportion of divorcing couples are ambivalent. In one major study, one year after the divorce, at least one spouse in three-quarters of divorcing couples reported second thoughts. Between 40 percent and 60 percent of divorced people in various state polls say they wish they had tried harder to make their marriages succeed. Meanwhile, only a minority of divorcing parents appear to be in high-conflict or violent marriages.

Thus, research suggests a significant minority of divorcing couples may be candidates for successful reconciliation. Government-funded pilot projects testing a variety of strategies and establishing effective divorce education programs could have a profound impact on divorce rates, at relatively low cost.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

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Allen Moulton from Uechi-ryu Etcetera

[ljr]

the way I would see it is that 60% (let's use the high number) of the divorced people would be willing to try for reconciliation. but you would need both parties to be willing in a couple. So even though 60% would be willing, you will have a significantly smaller sample where both people in the marriage would be willing.

ljr


[This message has been edited by ljr (edited April 17, 2002).]

[Ian]

I agree that's probably what they meant, ljr. Using the same range the odds of both in the couple being interested in reconciliation is .4-.6 squared, or 16% to 36%. However, one might guess that in relationships with one partner interested in trying, you might expect that interest to be related to a perception of the partner's interest, so that interested / disinterested people wouldn't be paired randomly but would be more likely to be paired with a like minded spouse.

Two other points: This is a year after. Divorcing couples need this counseling a year before the tested time period, and the numbers might be quite different then.

The 40-60% range was the range of percentages in individual surveys. The total percentages might be anywhere in that range, and if most studies said 40% instead of 60, then the use of the term minority is justified even without the grouping problem.

[Allen M.]

Thanks for your help, everyone. I say the paragraph was poorly written. All too-often today numbers are mixed up in the same paragraph.



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Allen Moulton from Uechi-ryu Etcetera

[ljr]

there is a book: "Innumeracy : Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences" by John Allen Paulos. It discusses the poor understand of math and mathmatical relationionships, it is a fun an easy read. I recommend it to anyone who is interested in this type of thing.

cheers,
Louis