This is from Zogby. While any one day of his daily polls means nothing, the trend seems to point towards a final destination. And so maybe this is something. Or maybe not. We shall see...
There's something else I've wondered about. We Virginians - who elected the first ever black governor - are aware of something called the Wilder effect. The left coasters call it the Bradley effect. The phenomenon appeared in Virginia when just before the election, Wilder was "wildly" ahead. But when it came time for the vote, he just barely got elected. The gist of it is that people will unconsciously tell pollsters what they think they want to hear. But behind the curtain, they very well may do something entirely different.Obama leads McCain by 48 to 44 percent among likely voters in the four-day tracking poll, which has a margin of error of 2.9 points.
Pollster John Zogby said that while Obama's overall lead had remained relatively stable between 2 and 6 points in the 12 days since the poll started, the latest figures showed a bump for McCain following Wednesday's final presidential debate.
"Today was the first full sample post-debate and there's a clear indication that McCain is moving up," Zogby said.
He added that McCain's support among Republican voters appeared to be consolidating.
McCain was backed by 91 percent of Republicans in the poll, while Obama drew support from just 88 percent of Democrats. But Obama still enjoyed a 16-point advantage among independent voters, which many analysts expect to be a deciding factor in the November 4 election.
From Zogby's blog.
There are a lot of other interesting things going on. Some of it is happenstance consequences of several administrations worth of bad policy, such as the popping of the housing bubble and the collapse of the "junk loan" market. Another thing worth noting is the halving of the price of a barrel of oil. It seems that just when you fill your tank to take advantage of the new low price of gas, it drops another nickel. Don't think that consumers don't notice that. Call it instant gratification if you will. I truly believe that the "Average Joe" cares more about the stupid little things right in front of his nose like how much it costs to fill his pickup truck on that day.
Hey, This Race Might Be Winnable
A lot of the state polls look pretty bad for McCain lately, but there's been an interesting shift in the tracking polls.
The other thing is, in most of these, if there's been movement, Obama's been pretty consistent - right around, or just under, 50 percent. McCain's gains have come from undecideds.
- Rasmussen’s Presidential Tracking poll now shows Barack Obama leading John McCain by four points, 50 percent to 46 percent. At one point, Obama was up by 8.
- Gallup’s national tracking poll of likely voters has Obama leading McCain by two points, 49 percent to 47 percent.
- AP/Yahoo shows Obama leading McCain by two points, 44%-42%
- The Reuters/C-Span/Zogby national tracking survey shows Obama leading McCain by five points, 49%-44%.
- The GW/Battleground tracking poll has Obama leading McCain by four points, 49%-45%.
- Bill
Republican my ass, he's a lunatic.
You seem to be way off base.
Although in 2000, which are you calling dreamy and which safe? More people pulled the lever for Gore then for Bush, but Bush won the electoral college process. So Gore was the safe candidate?
